Scenarios

Paths to eliminate ecological overshoot

Scenarios are "What if" explorations to understand the consequences of choosing a deadline to eliminate global ecological overshoot.

What is overshoot?
In simple terms, Overshoot is the shortfall in earth's biological capacity to meet the consumption demands of all humanity.

In other words:

Overshoot = (Humanity's Ecological Footprint) - (Earth's Biocapacity)




Ecological Footprint
...or demand on biocapacity is shaped by three factors:

1. Population size
2. Average consumption per per person
3. Average footprint intensity per unit of consumption

A reduction in these factors would make for a reduction in the overshoot.

Earth's Biocapacity
...or supply is determined by two factors:

1. Available biologically productive area
2. Bioproductivity or yield per hectare

An improvement in these factors would reduce the overshoot.

The Three Scenarios

The Living Planet Report explores three scenarios:

• Scenario 1 : A moderate business-as-usual scenario, based on United Nations projections
• Scenario 2 : A slow-shift scenario, leading to the elimination of overshoot by the end of the century
• Scenario 3 : A rapid-reduction scenario in which overshoot ends by 2050