Rapid-reduction

Aggressive efforts to move out of overshoot by 2050

Accumulated ecological debt eliminated by 2040, 30% biocapacity buffer by end of the century

 

This scenario assumes that

1. On the demand side, humanity's ecological footprint could be reduced by 40% from 2.2 global hectares in 2003 to 1.3 global hectares in 2100. Achieving this would require:

• Reduce in CO2 emissions to 50% by 2050 and 70% by 2100
• 23% decrease in per person cropland and grazing land footprints

2. On the supply side: 

• 30% growth in biocapacity by increase in cropland, fisheries, and forest yields through improved technology and management.

This scenario requires greatest initial economic investment but it carries lowest ecological risk because it minmizes ecological debt the fastest.

Twin challenges: Securing biodiversity and increasing biocapacity
Animals compete with humans for food and habitat. Plant diversity can be drastically impaired due to widespread cultivation of a limited set of domesticated species. To leave a portion of Earth's productivity for the use of wild species is an additional challenge over bringing human demands within earth's productive capacity.

The success of this scenario hinges on the drastic 30% rise in earth's biocapacity. It is a huge challenge to achieve this without introducing further environmental imbalances in the form of energy intensive farming, cutting down forests to create grazing areas, irrigation causing salinization or excessive fertilizer use impacting downstream or downwind wildlife.